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UT mathematics professor Lorenzo Sadun teaches about probability. His expertise in that field has helped him assess his chances this November when he goes up against the winner of Tuesday's Republican runoff as a Democratic write-in candidate for the newly-redrawn U.S. Congressional District 10.
"My probability of winning is very small because the district was gerrymandered very carefully, and because it's always hard for a write-in candidate to get traction," Sadun said. "The more I watch the runoff, the more optimistic I get, because I think a lot of people are really offended with what the two Republican candidates are putting forth."
Republicans Michael McCaul and Ben Streusand are in the middle of a primary runoff for District 10, which now extends from Austin to Houston under the redistricting plan passed by the Legislature in 2003.
McCaul, who until Wednesday wasn't aware he would have Democratic opposition, said the district is about 65 percent Republican, making it difficult for a Democrat to win.
"I think whoever prevails in the runoff will most likely be the next congressman," McCaul said. "But you have to take every opponent seriously, and I certainly would in this case."
Sadun has never run for office before, but said he served as president of the Berkeley College Democrats when he was a graduate student. He has written several opinion pieces for the Austin American-Statesman. After no Democrats ran in the District 10 primary, he stepped up.
"As a voter, I felt personally hurt, that I wasn't going to have a right to vote in November, and I realized there were thousands of people in the same situation," Sadun said.
Write-in candidates in Texas must pay a $3,125 filing fee or collect 500 petition signatures by Sept. 3. Sadun has already collected 300 signatures with the help of more than 70 volunteers working in their neighborhoods.
Although he doesn't have experience in government, the lifelong Democrat said he is good at researching issues and listening to people.
"I don't have all the answers to our problems - no one does," Sadun said. "But I'm willing to listen to the people of the district, learn what they have to teach me and take that wisdom to Washington."
Graduate student Betseygail Rand, who Sadun advises, said he would make a great congressman.
"It's a longshot, but his participating in the election does a lot of good by keeping issues alive, stomping up some dust and being supportive of the other Democratic candidates," Rand said.
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