 "Photo: Ryan Wiley")
Welch Auditorium filled with students, parents, professionals and Austin locals alike who came Friday night to watch Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers' lecture on how mathematical models can be used to prevent or contain the spread of infectious diseases.
Meyers, an assistant professor of Integrative Biology at the University, started the lecture titled "Fighting Deadly Diseases: Strategies for Prediction and Containment," with an explanation of why the mathematical predictions of SARS and its spread in China were not accurate.
Scientists and doctors were grossly wrong in their prediction of how many people would be afflicted by the severe acute respiratory syndrome, also known as SARS, Meyers said. Scientists predicted between 30,000 to 100,000 people would contract SARS, but only 782 people were diagnosed with it. This is a large margin of error, said Meyers, but she added the predictions were inaccurate because the estimates used in the spread were based on the SARS impact in Japan and Singapore. You simply could not apply how the disease reacted in one region with that of a completely different region, said Meyers.
Meyers explained her research group's findings through realistic models, which dealt with how air travel can lead to the spread of a disease. They studied small-scale contact between people and the distribution of contact in a household versus a school, mall or similiar setting. The research group used this to predict what would happen if official action was taken, such as contact reducing interventions, transmission reducing interventions and vaccination - all of which help in stopping the diffusion of infectious diseases. Meyers' lab took this data and compared it to previous outbreaks such as SARS in China and the 1918 pandemic flu. Meyers' research applies this to the Avian Flu and future strategies in battling epidemics.
The biostatistics class she teaches at UT is a degree requirement for biology students but is still "a great class for understanding this type of research in a greater capacity," said Bob Jansen, chairman of the Integrative Biology department.
A large number of high school students attended the lecture, some of whom were promised class credit, said Josh Espinoza, a freshman at Vista Ridge High School.
"It was interesting to see how math could be used to help solve real-world problems," said Chris Javadi, a neurobiology sophomore.
Jennifer Jordan and Carissa Rojanasumaphong, teachers at McNeil High School in Austin, also came to watch Meyers' lecture.
Jordan said the lecture presented "an eye-opening real-world example," and that she supported any research that could further students' interest in math.
The lecture was part of the Hot Scienece-Cool Talks Outreach Lecture Series, which alerts local teachers as well as other interested Austinites of current breakthroughs in the scientific community.
Some topics that were left out of the lecture were how susceptible the government and other agencies were to the findings of Meyers' lab including what measures would they adhere to and under what conditions would these actions be taken. One possibe scenario Meyers presented was analyzing which major airports to temporarily shut down to prevent an epidemic from spreading.
"I wish that type of thing was offered when I was in high school" said Monique Monita, a biochemistry and cell and molecular biology sophomore.
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