The threat of the Iranian government or radical groups endangering the oil flow from the Middle East to the rest of the world evokes fear for energy security among U.S. leaders, said a group of panelists Tuesday.
UT associate professor of public affairs Eugene Gholz and Simon Henderson, director of Gulf Energy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, discussed the political-military threat to energy security at the Thompson Conference Center to about 50 students and faculty.
Much of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian coast, a controversial location for such an important commodity, Gholz said.
“There is remarkable consensus that the U.S. government faces energy security challenges,” Gholz said.
He said Iran is not as strong a threat as they pose themselves. Leaders must have confidence in the U.S. military to ensure security around the area, Gholz said.
“Iran has limited capabilities to obstruct the oil industry,” Gholz said.
He also emphasized the difficulties of sinking oil tankers — one of the methods used to endanger oil supplies. Oil floats, so unless the attackers drain the tanks, sinking them would be difficult.
“Iranians are using less than the best weapons against really hard targets,” Gholz said.
The Iranian military has been known to use asymmetric tactics, also referred to by Gholz as the “dodging and bobbing method,” when attacking tankers. "With these tactics, the Iranian military shoots missiles and then flees the scene or uses suicide bombers to avoid head-to-head combat," he said.
"These tactics are weak and rarely work," Gholz said.
“If they attack these tankers, people will laugh,” he said.
Henderson said he felt the picture is worse than the one Gholz painted.
“My immediate concern is not that the American military is not ready for an attack, but the energy supply will face immediate danger,” Henderson said.
Henderson offered three solutions to ensure energy security: rely on the strength of the U.S. Navy and its allies, secure physical security of oil supply in the Middle East and provide alternative routes for the flow of oil.
Rebecca Hopkins, a Middle Eastern and public affairs graduate student who attended the panel discussion, said she gained insight about energy security.
“It’s just very interesting to hear how markets interact when it comes to energy security,” Hopkins said. “Information about the technological part is not always provided.”
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